Weekly Economic Data - August 18, 2008
Previous Weeks Economic Data (August 12 - August 15)
| Date | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12 | Trade Balance | Jun | -$56.8B | -$59.0B | -$61.9B | -$59.2B | -$59.8B |
| 8/12 | Treasury Budget | July | -$102.8B | NA | -$86.8B | -36.4B | - |
| 8/13 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Jul | 0.8% | NA | NA | 0.9% | - |
| 8/13 | Import Prices ex-oil | Jul | 0.9% | NA | NA | 0.9% | - |
| 8/13 | Retail Sales | Jul | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| 8/13 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Jul | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | - |
| 8/13 | Business Inventories | Jun | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8/13 | Crude Inventories | 08/06 | -.316K | NA | NA | 1614K | - |
| 8/14 | Core CPI | Jul | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | - |
| 8/14 | CPI | Jul | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | - |
| 8/14 | Initial Claims | 08/09 | 450K | 435K | 436K | 460K | 455K |
| 8/15 | NY Empire State Index | Aug | 2.8 | NA | -5.0 | -4.9 | - |
| 8/15 | Net Foreign Purchases | Jun | $53.4B | NA | $57.5B | $83.2B | $67.0B |
| 8/15 | Capacity Utilization | Jul | 79.8% | 79.9% | 79.8% | 78.8% | 79.9% |
| 8/15 | Industrial Production | Jul | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8/15 | Mich Sentiment-Prel. | Aug | 61.7 | 63.0 | 62.0 | 61.2 | - |
The previous weeks economic data was mixed and the S&P 500 ended the week about even. On a positive note, industrial production increased 0.2%, beating the 0.0% expectation. Industrial production decreases during normal recessions, so a continued positive industrial production number suggests some economic strength. However, this industrial strength may be driven by the relative weakness of the US dollar, which attracts exports. The slightly better than expected trade balance number demonstrates the growing economic role of exports. Recently the US dollar has been strengthening, which could counteract this industrial trend.
However, CPI increased 0.8%, greater than the 0.4% market expectation. I think growing inflation continues to be an economic question mark. Recent drops in values of commodities combined with a rising US dollar have placed downward pressure on inflation, but significant inflation still has a negative impact and handcuffs the Fed.
Next Weeks Economic Data (August 19 - August 21)
| Date | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/19 | Building Permits | Jul | - | NA | 949K | 1091K | - |
| 8/19 | Core PPI | Jul | - | NA | 0.2% | 0.2% | - |
| 8/19 | Housing Starts | Jul | - | NA | 963K | 1066K | - |
| 8/19 | PPI | Jul | - | NA | 0.6% | 1.8% | - |
| 8/20 | Crude Inventories | 08/16 | - | NA | NA | -316K | - |
| 8/21 | Initial Claims | 08/16 | - | NA | NA | 450K | - |
| 8/21 | Leading Indicators | 08/16 | - | NA | -0.2% | -0.1% | - |
| 8/21 | Philadelphia Fed | Aug | - | NA | -14.1 | -16.3 | - |
The housing starts and building permits numbers will provided insight into the strength of the weak housing sector. If these indicators are in line or above expectations, the data may support the idea that the falling housing market is beginning to stabilize.
Another important economic indicator is PPI, a measure of inflation. In addition to the CPI, the PPI will provide important data about the impact of changing commodity prices and a slowing economy on inflation.
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