Weekly Economic Data - August 3, 2008
Previous Weeks Economic Data (July 29 - August 1)
| Date | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/29 | Consumer Confidence | Jul | 51.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| 7/30 | ADP Employment | Jul | 9K | - | -60K | -77K | -79K |
| 7/30 | Crude Inventories | 7/26 | -81K | NA | NA | -1558K | - |
| 7/31 | Chain Deflator-Adv. | Q2 | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 7/31 | Employment Cost Index | Q2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | - |
| 7/31 | GDP-Adv. | Q2 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 7/31 | Initial Claims | 7/26 | 448K | 380K | 395K | 404K | 406K |
| 7/31 | Chicago PMI | Jul | 50.8 | 50.1 | 49.0 | 49.6 | - |
| 8/1 | Auto Sales | Jul | - | 5.0M | NA | 4.9M | - |
| 8/1 | Truck Sales | Jul | - | 5.0M | NA | 5.0M | - |
| 8/1 | Average Workweek | Jul | 33.6 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| 8/1 | Hourly Earnings | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | - |
| 8/1 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Jul | -51K | -40K | -75K | -51K | -62K |
| 8/1 | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | - |
| 8/1 | Construction Spending | Jun | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| 8/1 | ISM Index | Jul | 50.0 | 50.5 | 49.2 | 50.2 | - |
The Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly to 51.9 from 51.0 in June, beating the expectations of 50.0. While there is a debate about the effectiveness of the CCI to forecast economic strength, the economic indicator does have some correlation to the performance of the major stock market indices. The United States is a very consumer driven economy. This low CCI number continues to indicate a very pessimistic consumer outlook, but as the graph indicates the CCI increase is a positive change relative to the sharp decline in previous months.
GDP increased 1.9% in the second quarter. Again this number is both positive and negative. The fact that GDP is still increasing during what many consider to be a recession is a positive indicator. However, the GDP number was below the 2.3% market expectation. The main catalysts for GDP growth were exports and generally international business. Domestic business was generally a central drag on the economy which is not encouraging. Also, GDP was influenced by the stimulus checks spent by consumers, cash flow that will not impact GDP in future quarters. In addition, 2007 fourth quarter GDP was revised downward 0.8% to negative 0.2% indicating the economy may have entered recession at the end of last year.
Initial Claims increased to 448,000 from the previous 406,000, adding to the bearish economic evidence. The average workweek decreased to 33.6 from 33.7, indicating that employers are cutting back further and more people are working part time. The jobless rate increased to 5.7% from 5.5%, reaching the highest level in over four years. In addition non farm payrolls were negative 51,000, which were better than market expectations of 71,000 but still not encouraging. Combined, these numbers point to a weakening work force and provide more bearish economic evidence.
However, the S&P finish at 1,260.31 up 0.21%, and the NASDAQ increased 0.02% to 2,310.96, so these generally bearish economic indicators did not completely drag down the major market indicies last week.
Next Weeks Economic Data (August 4 - August 8 )
| Date | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4 | Personal Income | Jun | - | 0.0% | -0.1% | 1.9% | - |
| 8/4 | Personal Spending | Jun | - | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | - |
| 8/4 | Factory Orders | Jun | - | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | - |
| 8/5 | ISM Services | Jul | - | 51.0 | 48.0 | 48.2 | - |
| 8/5 | FOMC Policy Statement | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8/6 | Crude Inventories | 08/02 | - | NA | NA | -81K | - |
| 8/6 | Consumer Credit | Jun | - | $7.0B | $6.0B | $7.8B | - |
| 8/7 | Initial Claims | 08/02 | - | NA | NA | 448K | - |
| 8/7 | Pending Home Sales | Jun | - | - | -1.3% | -4.7% | - |
| 8/8 | Productivity-Prel | Q2 | - | 2.8% | 2.6% | NA | - |
| 8/8 | Wholesale Inventories | Jun | - | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | - |
Related Sites:
Correlation of CCI to Stock Market
GDP Press Release
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